Wednesday, February 8

Big Cap Twenty

This weeks IBD big cap twenty list is out, you can see the first ten here and the second ten here.

Looking it over, there are a few things that one might notice. First, some of the biggest leaders have fallen off since the earnings season began. As IBD points out, Apple, Google, Ebay and Yahoo are gone. Mainly taken out by huge price corrections, and from here on out long stock holders will probably be using rallies in these stocks to unload more of their holdings because they know the short term party is over.

Second, the list is dominated by oil and commodity related names: SLB, HAL, PCZ, OXY, BHI, TLM,WFT, NEM. Also up are transports and big capital builders: NSC, CAT, BNI, CNI; and the big money houses of: LM, MER, LEH, and GS.

Techs are barely represented with BRCM and ADBE.

What's the point, you ask?

It's looking more and more like the beginnings of the Mises-Hayek Austrian business cycle. Money and credit is created out of thin air by the central bank providing "liquidity" to the economy and lowering the complex of interest rates below what would have existed without their intervention.

These false signals induce capital investments that otherwise would not have occurred, the boom phase, and lead to malinvestments which will eventually have to be corrected by business failures and unemployment, the bust phase. There are no free lunches, as Uncle Miltie has said.

But the desire in them to maintain political power is overwhelming. So the beat goes on...

No comments: