Friday, February 24

An Austrian View of Fooled by Randomness

James Sheehan finds common ground between Nassim Talebs Fooled by Randomness and Austrian economics.

Though Taleb was influenced by Hayek's The Road to Serfdom, he seems otherwise unaware of the Austrian critique of mainstream economics and the use of mathematics in economic theory.

This reminded me of a similar situation back in the eighties reading Michael Rothschild's, Bionomics. It too was a very enlightening book whose main theme paralleled the Hayekian ideas of spontaneous orders and the use of knowledge in society.

But it's author made not one reference to any Austrian thinker, apparently unaware that he was not exactly discovering virgin territory. Even a college dropout at minimum wage job playing Nattie Bumpo in the high sierras knew better.

Anyway, what's Taleb's main point, you ask?

It's this: you know less than you think you do, so don't sell those way out of the money calls or puts.

Taleb is a buyer and he's patient--and time, is on his side.

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